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A big caveat here is that the trading volumes on these niche questions are small – in the thousands of dollars for each of the markets mentioned above. One reason may be that Polymarket is not allowed to serve U.S. residents under a settlement with the CFTC, excluding a broad swath of traders from the world’s largest economy. Combined, there are $10,000 worth of bets on whether five different projects will do airdrops on the Solana blockchain by March 1, but again, when you break them down, they total thousands of dollars for each. Probabilities range from 16% for Kamino, a DeFi protocol, to 39% for another one, MarginFi.
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